Thailand’s Economy under US–China Trade War Pressure: An Industrial and Policy Analysis

Abstract

The trade conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has exerted significant impacts on the global economic system and international production networks. Thailand, as an open economy with a high dependence on exports, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in international trade policies and global economic conditions. Notably, since 2018, the Thai economy has shown signs of deceleration accompanied by increased volatility. This study aims to analyze the impacts of the trade war on Thailand’s economic structure and key industries, as well as to examine the structural vulnerabilities of the Thai economy. Furthermore, the study proposes policy recommendations to enhance long-term competitiveness. This study employed a qualitative research approach by collecting secondary data together with primary data obtained from in-depth interviews. The data were analyzed using content analysis to synthesize key issues in accordance with the study objectives. The findings reveal that trade wars have affected Thailand’s economy through the slowdown of global trade, reduced investment flows, and increased economic uncertainty. The impacts are particularly evident in industries that are highly integrated into global value chains, such as the electronics industry, the chemical and plastics industry, and other manufacturing sectors producing intermediate goods. Furthermore, the Thai economy demonstrates structural vulnerability due to its high dependence on exports and its concentration in medium value-added production, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand and trade policies. Policy implications from this study emphasize the need to promote high value-added industries, strengthen technological and innovation capabilities, develop workforce skills, and diversify export markets in order to enhance the resilience and long-term competitiveness of Thailand’s economy in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.