A Study of Thailand's Rice Trade in the United States Market

Abstract

This article aimed to study 1) analyze the factors affecting rice import volumes and the demand elasticities of Thai rice and its competitors in the United States market. Quarterly secondary time-series data from 2010 to 2024, covering 60 quarterly observations, are employed. The Double Log model is estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and 2) analyzes the components influencing the export performance of Thailand and competing countries in the U.S. market. The Constant Market Share (CMS) model is applied to compare two periods: 2015–2019 and 2020–2024. The results indicate that real GDP per capita of the US. is the primary determinant of rice import volumes. Regarding country-specific demand elasticities, Thai rice exhibits low price elasticity, reflecting consumers’ strong preference for its quality and the unique characteristics of jasmine rice, which are difficult to substitute. Meanwhile, both Thai and Indian rice demonstrate high income elasticity, indicating that they are normal goods whose demand increases with rising income levels. Vietnamese rice, on the other hand, shows high price elasticity, suggesting that consumers can easily substitute it with rice from alternative sources when its price increases. The CMS analysis reveals that global market expansion and market distribution effects contribute positively to Thailand’s export performance, whereas the pure competitiveness effect and export redirection effect are negative. This suggests that the growth in Thailand’s rice export value is primarily driven by global market expansion. Therefore, importance should be placed on improving product standards, such as organic agricultural standards and food safety standards, to increase product value and enhance consumer confidence in international markets.