Factors Associated with Passenger Electric Vehicle Registrations by Technology Type in Thailand

Abstract

This study aimed to: 1) analyze the current situation and competitive structure of Thailand’s passenger electric vehicle (EV) market for vehicles with no more than seven seats, and by EV type; and 2) examine and compare factors associated with EV market growth. Monthly secondary time-series data from January 2020 to December 2024 were obtained from the Department of Land Transport, the Bank of Thailand, the Energy Policy and Planning Office, the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand, and other relevant agencies. Non-stationary variables were transformed into logarithmic first differences (Δln), resulting in 59 observations used for estimation. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Porter’s Five Forces as an analytical framework, and regression models. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied, while Prais–Winsten AR(1) estimation was used for models in which serial correlation was detected. The results showed that: 1) competitive structures differed across EV technologies. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) faced high levels of industry rivalry and supplier bargaining power; Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) faced a high threat of substitutes; and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) had high barriers to entry, resulting in a relatively low threat of new entrants. 2) At the individual-coefficient level, the Used Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Price Index (UCI) was positively and statistically significantly associated with EV registrations in the overall model (β = 2.182, p = 0.003), the HEV model (β = 1.125, p = 0.032), and the PHEV model (β = 2.087, p = 0.015), whereas no statistically significant association was found in the BEV model (β = 1.103, p = 0.317). However, the PHEV model as a whole was not statistically significant at the 0.05 level (p = 0.069). Based on these findings, this study proposes the Resale-Value Bridge Proposition, suggesting that the resale value of existing vehicles may serve as a financial bridge supporting the transition to EVs; this proposition requires further empirical testing.