THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF AN AGING SOCIETY ON GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL SERVICES IN THAILAND
Keywords:
Population structure, Elderly, Social services, Social welfare, Public healthAbstract
This research aims to study the impact of changes in the elderly population structure on government expenditures for social services, social welfare, and public health in Thailand. This research is quantitative and time series data were collected over 16 years from 2009 to 2024 from the Budget Bureau, National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Public Health, and Ministry of Social Development and Human Security. Data stationarity was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and regression analysis using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method.
The research results found that the impact of population structure changes on the proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and over, and government welfare policies and measures, which are guidelines or principles established by the government to ensure national administration proceeds according to its goals, are significantly related to government expenditures on social services at a statistical significance level of .01. The proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and over, and government welfare policies and measures, are also significantly related to government expenditures on social welfare and public health at a statistical significance level of .01. The mortality rate, gross domestic product, and unemployment rate are not statistically significant, but are related in the same direction as government expenditures on social welfare and public health. The birth rate is significantly related to government expenditures on social welfare but in the opposite direction, with no statistical significance.
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