The The 20-Year National Strategy: How Should Thailand Move Forward?

Abstract

The 20-Year National Strategy (2018–2037) has officially come into force following its promulgation in the Royal Gazette through the Royal Command on 13 October 2018. The Strategy is designed to achieve the national vision of “Thailand as a secure, prosperous, and sustainable developed country, guided by the Sufficiency Economy Philosophy.” Under this framework, successive governments are legally obligated to formulate policies and budgets consistent with the National Strategy, while government agencies are required to implement it accordingly. As such, the National Strategy plays a crucial role in shaping the country’s future trajectory and directly concerns all Thai citizens.

In light of its significance, the Strategic Studies Division of the Center for Naval Strategic Studies incorporated an analysis of the global strategic environment over the next thirty years, drawing upon the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence’s report Global Strategic Trends: The Future Starts Today (6th edition), as a key external reference. This global outlook was examined in conjunction with an assessment of domestic factors across multiple dimensions, which serve both as driving forces and constraints affecting Thailand’s progress under the National Strategy.

Nevertheless, the convergence of multiple trends has generated complex interactions and intersections among divergent forces, producing multiplier effects and outcomes that are increasingly difficult to predict. Such convergence is largely driven by the accelerating pace of technological advancement, which significantly influences political, human resource, economic, social, and environmental trends. This process is characterized by uncertainty and carries the potential for strategic shocks and large-scale challenges. Strategic shocks, often referred to as “black swan” events, arise from unforeseen and unpredictable occurrences that unfold rapidly, such as the September 11 attacks, or from critical warning points along trend trajectories that materialize earlier than anticipated.

Persistent and complex challenges—such as mass migration and climate change—may not be resolvable in the short term and are likely to generate profound and far-reaching impacts. Moreover, routine forecasting and linear development paths may be abruptly transformed into major turning points as a result of interactions among converging trends, leading to significant systemic disruptions. The potential for disruption is further amplified by second- and third-order effects of technological progress and innovation, including phenomena such as Uberization, as well as transformations in logistics services and healthcare systems.

Ultimately, the expanding role of non-state actors and influential individuals in both domestic and international affairs has increased the complexity of managing emerging challenges. These dynamics constitute an integral part of the future security environment and may significantly affect Thailand’s ability to advance toward the goals of security, prosperity, and sustainability.