Grey-Zone Threats as a Quiet Challenge to State Security in the International System

Abstract

The geopolitical environment of the twenty-first century presents states around the world with increasingly complex challenges and obstacles. These difficulties arise from globalization, deepening interconnectivity, and the disruptions generated by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). The principal drivers of this transformation are crises whose impacts are networked and cross-cutting—spanning social, economic, political, environmental, scientific, and technological domains. This era has therefore witnessed the emergence of diverse forms of non-traditional security concerns, a development closely linked to the reality of a borderless world. Understanding global dynamics has thus become imperative for all states, as these issues directly and indirectly influence national security and national interests, both in the present and in the foreseeable future.

Moreover, the digital revolution of the late twentieth century and the advent of the 4IR have produced unprecedented technological transformations. These developments have reshaped the roles of states, societies, and organizational systems, exposing them to heightened vulnerabilities such as cyber threats, information manipulation, and ideological influence. Such threats can generate political and social instability and contribute to the proliferation of globalized, unregulated information flows and transnational crises. These dynamics have increased states’ susceptibility to economic, political, and social disruptions, especially in contexts of interstate competition and conflicts that fall short of full-scale war.

Within this increasingly complex and uncertain geopolitical landscape, major powers have increasingly turned to strategies aimed at influencing or intervening in other states to advance their own interests. These strategies are typically conducted below the threshold of armed conflict and are referred to as “the Grey Zone.” Grey-zone activities avoid direct military confrontation and instead employ a combination of diplomatic, political, social, economic, and informational instruments. These include propaganda and information operations (IO) designed to indirectly target a state through disinformation, distortion, and strategic influence campaigns that mobilize public opinion toward desired outcomes. Such actions enable states to pursue their own interests and create strategic advantages without resorting to open warfare.

Great powers, in particular, have shown a growing inclination to use grey-zone strategies to intervene in the domestic affairs of smaller states—states that are constrained by limited military capabilities, restricted influence, and reduced bargaining power. This dynamic reflects the enduring realist insight articulated by Thucydides: that “the strong do what they can, while the weak suffer what they must.” Smaller and weaker states therefore remain vulnerable to exploitation and coercive pressures exerted by more powerful states seeking to maximize their strategic advantages.