Amid the ongoing restructuring of the international order, how should Thailand conceptualize an approach to safeguarding its national interests?

Abstract

Contemporary global dynamics—and the trajectory of international affairs in the foreseeable future—diverge markedly from earlier historical patterns. The international system is now defined by rapid, often unpredictable transformations that elude precise forecasting even through the most rigorous analytical frameworks. Structural uncertainties, multifaceted complexities, and persistent ambiguities pervade virtually every major global issue. Among these challenges, the intensifying rivalry between great powers remains the most consequential, exerting profound political, economic, and security implications on states across the globe.

The post–Second World War order witnessed the ascendance of the United States as the predominant global power, supplanting Britain as the principal architect of international governance. This shift was driven not only by the relative exhaustion of other wartime participants—whose resources were depleted by prolonged conflict—but also by the United States’ late entry into the war, which allowed it to emerge relatively unscathed and ultimately become a major creditor to several Allied nations. Its newfound power positioned it alongside the Soviet Union, its temporary ally, at the apex of the postwar international structure.

Yet the ideological chasm separating the two soon crystallized into a prolonged geopolitical confrontation. The United States and the Soviet Union competed relentlessly to undermine one another by pursuing expansive military buildups and engaging in an unprecedented nuclear arms race. The sheer magnitude of nuclear proliferation eventually necessitated negotiated constraints, exemplified by the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), which achieved limited but meaningful progress. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, marked a decisive turning point: its constituent republics fragmented into independent states, and Russia—the principal successor—lacked the capabilities required to sustain great-power parity with the United States. The Cold War thus concluded with a unipolar moment dominated by American power.

In the post–Cold War era, the United States asserted itself as the principal architect of global order, shaping political and economic arrangements that aligned with its own strategic and commercial interests, particularly in the realm of international trade and investment. Yet today, the resurgence of geopolitical competition, the diffusion of power, and mounting systemic uncertainties demand renewed attention to how medium-sized states navigate an increasingly contested international environment.